93. Islam: the fastest growing religion in the world
93. Islam: the fastest growing religion in the world

93. Islam: the fastest growing religion in the world

May the resurrection of the Lord restore our hope. Happy Easter.

Last week’s post concluded with a comment on Islamophobia sweeping the West. The rise of Islam in the West has been described as an ‘invasion’. Hence, there is a fear that Islam will take over Europe, as it is the fastest-growing religion in the world today. Today’s post contextualises the data that Islam is the fastest-growing religion in the world today.  

The 2017 Pew Research Center report projects that Christianity’s long reign as the world’s largest religion may end by the middle of this century because Muslims will grow rapidly between 2015 and 2060. According to the report, “While the world’s population is projected to grow 32% in the coming decades, the number of Muslims is expected to increase by 70% – from 1.8 billion in 2015 to nearly 3 billion in 2060. In 2015, Muslims made up 24.1% of the global population. Forty-five years later, they are expected to make up more than three-in-ten of the world’s people (31.1%)”.[1] This statistic needs to be examined in context.

First, the number of Muslims is growing rapidly because the number of Christians is shrinking.

The West has long been the hub of Christianity, but with declining birth rates and the growth of those who identify as non-religious (nones), the number of Christians cannot grow as it did in the past. While Christianity is growing in the global south, it cannot compensate for the overall decrease in the European and North American hubs.

In contrast, Muslims tend to have more children, and with a ratio of 3:1, they have the highest fertility rate in the world. The Pew Report affirms that “High fertility is a major driver of projected Muslim population growth around the world and in particular regions.”

 All ReligionsMuslimsDifference
Sub-Saharan Africa4.85.60.8
Middle East &North Africa3.03.00.0
North America2.02.70.6
Asia-Pacific2.12.60.4
Europe1.62.10.5
World2.53.10.6
Total fertility rate of Muslims by regions, 2010 -2015 by Pew Research Center.[2]

Demographic studies identify a 2.1 birth rate per woman (that is, a child-bearing woman has an average of 2.1 children) as the replacement level for population growth, all things being equal (no net migration and mortality rates remain stable). Anything figure below signifies that the population is shrinking. Using the 2.1 fertility rate benchmark, one sees that Muslims have a steady growth rate worldwide. However, other religions are shrinking. The fertility rate in Europe is 1.6, which shows that the Christian population is shrinking. Muslims in Europe have a fertility rate of 2.1, the benchmark for a growing population.  

Second, Islam permits the death penalty for apostasy and blasphemy. A 2022 United Nations Human Rights Office report affirms that Maldives, Qatar, Somalia, United Arab Emirates, and Yemen currently maintain the death penalty for apostasy only. Afghanistan, Brunei, Iran, Mauritania, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia maintain the death penalty for both apostasy and blasphemy[3]. This death penalty discourages Muslims from abandoning the faith as Christians easily do. Some prefer to remain nominal Muslims to prevent being murdered. Those who often convert or abandon the faith do so in Christian or liberal countries or in areas where Muslims do not enforce the apostasy and blasphemy law. As A.S Ibrahim argues,

“the growing number of Muslims doesn’t necessarily reflect Islam’s persuasiveness”.[4]  

Yet research shows that Muslims are increasingly abandoning their faith. A 2018 Pew Research study shows that about a quarter of Muslims raised in the United States no longer identify as Muslims.[5] The change is also seen in core Muslim countries. For instance, although Iran’s official census states that 99.5% of the population are Muslims, only 40 percent identified themselves as Muslims in a 2020 survey.[6] The disappointment among Iranians with their political system introduced with the 1979 Islamic Revolution, and the current wave of protests and crackdowns, even on hijab-wearing, might have led to disinterest in institutional religion. Another study conducted by BBC News Arabic and Arab Barometer shows that the population in the Arab world who describe themselves as “not religious” grew from 11% in 2012-2014 to 18% in 2019.[7]

Irrespective of the rise among Muslims who abandon their faith, the population of Muslims will still increase for other reasons apart from demography. The Pew Report cited above about US Muslims also shows that the number of Muslim converts offsets the number of those leaving. Most new Muslim converts come from Christian backgrounds—Protestants (53%) and Catholics (20%). About 19% had no religion, while the rest switched from Orthodox Christianity, Buddhism, Judaism, or other religions. Reasons for converting include a new preference for the beliefs and teachings of Islam (about 25%), the study of Islam or its religious text (21%), a desire to belong to a community (10%), marriage or a relationship (9%), introduced by a friend or followed by a public leader (9%).[8]

In Nigeria, there are converts from Christianity to Islam and vice versa. It might be difficult to get accurate data on Christians and Muslims in Nigeria because Nigeria’s statistics are sometimes subject to socio-political, economic, and religious interference. 

May God continue to help us🙏🏾

K’ọdị🙋🏾‍♂️


[1] M. Likpa – C. Hackett, “Why Muslims are the world’s fastest-growing religious group”, in Pew Research Center, 6 April 2017, available at URL: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/04/06/why-muslims-are-the-worlds-fastest-growing-religious-group/ (accessed 2 March 2023).

[2] Pew Research Center, Size & Demographic Characteristics of Religious Groups, 2 April 2015, available at URL: https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2015/04/02/muslims/

[3] Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, Jubilee Campaign Submission to the United Nations Special Rapporteur on extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions:The Death Penalty For Apostasy & Blasphemy, 2022, 2-3, available at URL: https://www.ohchr.org/sites/default/files/2022-05/jubilee-campaign-reply-dp.pdf (accessed 2 March 2023).

[4] A.S. Ibrahim, “Is Islam the World’s Fastest Growing Religion”, in The Gospel Coalition, 6 December 2022, available at URL: https://www.thegospelcoalition.org/article/islam-fastest-growing-religion/ (accessed on 2 March 2023).

[5] B. Mohamed – E.P. Sciupac, “The share of Americans who leave Islam is offset by those who become Muslim”, in Pew Research Center,26 January 2018, available at URL: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/01/26/the-share-of-americans-who-leave-islam-is-offset-by-those-who-become-muslim/ (accessed 2 March 2023).

[6] P.T. Arab – A Maleki, “Iran’s secular shift: new survey reveals huge changes in religious beliefs”, in The Conversation, 10 September 2020, available at URL: https://theconversation.com/irans-secular-shift-new-survey-reveals-huge-changes-in-religious-beliefs-145253

[7] K. Hodal, “Arab world turns its back on religion – and its ire on the US, in The Guardian, 24 June 2019, available at URL: https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2019/jun/24/arab-world-turns-its-back-on-religion-and-its-ire-on-the-us (accessed on 2 March 2023).

[8] B. Mohamed – E.P. Sciupac, “The share of Americans who leave Islam is offset by those who become Muslim”, in Pew Research Center,26 January 2018, available at URL: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/01/26/the-share-of-americans-who-leave-islam-is-offset-by-those-who-become-muslim/ (accessed 2 March 2023).

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